because i get analytical when circumstances come right down to the wire

i've thought about it. as i watched last night unfold before my eyes, i started to contemplate the 2007 Red Sox. everyone around me, it seems, is mad. they're mad at Tito. or Matsuzaka. or Drew. or just... just plain mad, i guess. and i'm not. and i wondered why that was.

it's not that i don't care or that i've given up rooting for my boys or that i don't still want them to win. because i do want them to win. i am pulling for them with every fiber of my existence. and i really really want to believe we're going to pull off a miracle. but i think that 31 years of being a Sox fan has conditioned me into mental preparation. if i start accepting imminent defeat now, it won't be such a shock to me when it happens. and if the improbable happens, the surprise will be a pleasant one. i'll take the pleasant surprise over the crushing reality check any day, but maybe that's just me.

i still think this series will end in six games. unfortunately, that means the Sox are the team packing in it, should that be the case. but i don't think the Sox will lose on Thursday. not with Joshy starting -- provided that he's healthy & all this talk about being pulled after 80 pitches in Game One because his back was stiffening up was just a shortlived concern remedied by a few days' rest.

i do think now is the time to make some changes though. there is no more looking ahead. there is only the next game. because setting up for the future won't help anymore when losing the next game means the future is Spring Training.

1. starting pitching: they say you win the playoffs with pitching. at first i was being rather critical of our starters, but the more i look at the facts, the numbers, and the stats, the more i believe that our pitching hasn't been bad as i first thought. the problem is that the Indians are swinging some ridiculously hot lumber, while our bats have been running hot & cold -- but more on that in a minute. what this boils down to is that "pretty good" isn't going to cut it. what we need now is for our pitching to be exceptional, lights out, near perfect. i don't think there is any need to address Commander Kick Ass's start in Game One. so, moving along to Game Two, i wanted to be hard on Schill, but the more i think about it, the more i have to admit that he was in that game. we didn't lose til the eleventh inning. that wasn't so much Schill's fault, and starting pitching was not the reason we lost that game. Wakefield actually looked good last night, coming out of the gate. the knuckleball was working, and then these kids seemed to figure it out. that is what can happen with the knuckleball, and then suddenly it becomes hittable. but all in all i can't really complain about Wakey's start either -- yes, five runs on five hits, i know, but seven Ks didn't just happen by themselves. after some careful consideration, i have to say that, though i feel bad picturing the inconsolable Matsuzaka, staring silently into his locker for over an hour after Monday's game had ended, if we get through Joshy's game like i think we will (although remember that we *will* have to face Sabathia who just might shake off this post season black cloud hanging over his head), then i would stick with Schill in Game Six back at Fenway, without a doubt. he doesn't have a 9-2 post season record for nothing. and then if by some miracle we find ourselves facing Game Seven, i think it's time to look at all the options. i just don't think i want Matsuzaka pitching with the season hanging on the line. and i don't see how Joshy could possibly pitch Sunday on two days' rest. Game Two's appearance aside, when he was brought out of the bullpen mid-inning, something which he is completely unaccustomed to handling, i think i would take my chances with starting Lestah over Matsuzaka, based on what i saw last night. Change Number One: swap out Lester for Matsuzaka.

2. the bullpen: tight situations require Timlin-Jeemer-Papelbon. period. MDC-Lopez-Gagne need to not be seen so much as getting up off that bench in the bullpen without a minimum ten-run lead. this will demand our starting pitchers making it deeper into games. at least through the sixth inning. Change Number Two: just accept that we have a three-man bullpen.

3. the line up: it's difficult to decide who to be upset with while you're watching the game. nothing about our offense is as it seems, at least to me. until you start taking a hard look at the numbers. running purely off the emotion of the game, it's easy to ask our big sluggers why they aren't doing more. but i find the fault falls mostly on four individuals, no matter how it feels otherwise, which i realized when i examined the following stats for the ALCS:

Papi: i can't be mad at Papi. he's playing hurt, but he's not hitting that way when you consider he is hitting .385, has gotten on base 10 out of 18 chances, and though he only has one RBI, he has scored five runs -- so he isn't driving in runs, but he is getting on base to set the table -- and he has only struck out once & hit into one double play.
Youk: has also reached base 9 out of 18 plate appearances. he is hitting .400, and like Papi, has only one RBI, but has crossed home plate 4 times. he's struck out twice but hit into no double plays.
Manny: the bad - one K & two double plays. the good - has been on base 11 out of 18 chances, driven in 7 RBI, and scored 4 times. i would say that the good outweighs the bad here too, no?
Lowell: he's not hitting for the average he did in the regular season -- only .250 for the ALCS, only reaching base 5 out of 18 appearances, including a strike out & a double play -- but he is also responsible for 6 RBI. still a contributor.
Tek: hitting a pathetic .200, only reaching 3 out of 15 chances, a double play & 4 Ks. but his 4 RBI save him from getting the evil eye. mostly.

which bring us to the four who have not been doing *anything*:
batting averages of .188 (Coco & Pedroia) and .147 (Lugo). Drew is hitting .267 but that make be his only semi-decent number.
Pedroia: reached base only 4 out of 18 chances. 5 Ks.
Coco: reached base 3 out of 16 chances. 4 Ks. 1 GIDP.
Lugo: reached base 2 out of 15 chances. 2 Ks. 2 GIDP.
Drew: reached base 4 out of 15 chances. 1 K.
and are you ready for this? *zero* RBI between the four of them. so they aren't driving anyone in, and they're barely making it on base to be brought around themselves. 64 chances to do *something* and what we get is managing to arrive on base 13 times and bring in no runs.
i keep looking at our options. we have Cora, who can play SS & 2B, but i don't think that's going to be the answer here, much as i like him. so ultimately that means we're stuck with Lugo & we need to pray Pedroia finds his big boy pants while he's off today. we have Drew, who i will acknowledge is marginally better than the other three on my angry list, and the plan is to sit him on Thursday anyway, and use Kielty against Sabathia anyway, like in Game One, when, incidentally, he had a hit, an intentional walk, 2 RBI and scored a run himself in 3 plate appearances. so that's a change but not a new one, though i wish we'd used him a little more perhaps. which leaves me with Coco. i love Coco. i love what he's done for us. but the man is not hitting. like hardly at all. and even his defense has lost some of its sparkle. do you remember how we earned the AL East pennant? the rookies. the little sparks of life when we needed them most. i think it's time to see what Ellsbury can do out there in center. even if he does nothing, at least we can say we tried, and we certainly weren't missing out on something spectacular from Coco. i feel like we need something to shake up our line up, and adding in a new face seemed to work at the end of the season. Change Number Three: Coco on the bench to give Ellsbury a shot.

if ever there was a time to push the Panic Button, i would think this would be it. but i don't want it to be in full blown panic mode. i want it to be calculated. i want to look at the options. but something has to change or we are done. Tito wasn't afraid to make changes before, and they almost always paid off. let's not revert back to last season's inflexibility from deviating from the original plan, even when the original plan is imploding before our eyes.

anyone have any thoughts? agree? disagree? another option?
i'm curious to see what we come up with, how they match to the decisions Francona ends up making, and how they play out.